I think this is why in the end, the company with the most brilliant first-parties will come out on top.
I think Microsoft will be in a sticky situation in a couple of years with the fact that they simply do not have the first-party talent of Nintendo or Sony, and almost all of their exclusive third-parties are jumping ship to the "exclusive" wagon and deciding to go multi-platform where the money is at. That might be where the money is at, but I've still yet to meet a third-party game except for the brilliant Red Dead Redemption that wows me with the quality of an exclusive.
In the end, Microsoft will have Rare and Microsoft Game Studios and a couple of others.....but Rare is poo, loool.
Nintendo's got its brilliance so I'm not worried about them, and whether they lose or win they still "win" because they're so far ahead right now.
Sony's in a secure position with having just acquired Media Molecule and with Bungie now bringing its next game to the PS3 as well. Insomniac's previous IPs are still exclusive to Sony, as well.
The game line-up from here to 2011 with Sony is staggering. SOCOM 4, Killzone 3, inFAMOUS 2, LittleBigPlanet 2, Resistance 3, Motorstorm 3, Ape Escape, David Jaffe's game, Grand Turismo 5, Starhawk, The Last Guardian, and obviously other surprises.
Nintendo's got Metroid Other M and Zelda this holiday...that's all they really need to stay on top, anyway. Probably a WiiSports 3 or something, too.
Microsoft has....Halo Reach and Crackdown 2 as far as I know. Oh wait, they also have Gears of War 3 and Fable 3.