Pretty good, only replace Demyx and Xigbar in OC for 2 of either Vexen, Lexaeus, Zexion, Saix, Luxord, Marluxia, or Larxene
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And Roxas was in CO, it appears. I doubt he was there during the time CoM took place though
We know that Axel invited Roxas over, and that Roxas saw what happened between Riku and Zexion - probably not live though, which would indicate he was there past Reverse Rebirth - which is, by the time of Riku and Zexion's fight - after Sora's part is over.
I find it highly unlikely he was there to see Sora if he was there during the end of Reverse Rebirth (seeing how he couldn't have been there before Riku and Zexion's fight) - after all, meeting with Sora would've gotten him to disappear.
I'd sooner blame Namine as Saix did, instead of saying the Castle just does that sort of thing on its own. Seeing how we have nothing to base it on.
I doubt every theory will be wrong. They didn't exactly hold back information for the most part.