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Deleted member 252753
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This idea is going to take a bit of explaining and I am not the best of communicators but please bear with me because I really believe this idea has legs.
So, in the most recent update, we finally found out who the replacement is and it's Ven! Brain told us so it must be true as he has the list and has no clear reason to lie. I thought it was Ven for a while so wasn't surprised at the revelation but looking over the scene again I have changed my mind and think the replacement is actually Skuld.
Apart from Ven being a little too obvious (especially with ReMind), there are a few strange things in the scene, which I will try to list.
1) Skuld gets defensive very quickly when Brain stars his questioning and when Brain says that Strelitzia was originally meant to be a union leader, Skuld immediately suggests that Lady Ava made the change herself, appointing a replacement for Strelitzia after his disappearance. If this were true, then the replacement leader would be innocent and the act of replacement itself benign, an unfortunate consequence of Strelitzia's disappearance rather than linked to it. Once Brain shuts that down logically, Skuld quickly suggests the absent Lauriam could be the replacement. It's odd that she is so keen to apportion blame to people who can't argue back.
2) Brain and Ephemer are taken aback by both Ven and Skuld being present and it annoys Brain, who says that he'll 'have to make this work'. But if Brain wanted to ask Ven those questions to verify whether he knew he was the replacement, I can't see why Skuld being there too would be a problem. Also, Ephemer says Chirithy brought 'both of them', not 'them as well', which suggests that he and Brain did want to talk to each of them but separately (I am assuming that the Japanese has the same nuance as the translation).
3) Ephemer seems very uncomfortable during the conversation, saying 'this isn't right'. This one may just upset at anyone being a replacement but I am not convinced. EDIT: The translation has been updated and so this one doesn't work now.
4) Visual clues - watch the faces of Skuld and Ven when Brain mentions Strelitzia. Compare Skuld's face when Brain says Ven's name wasn't on the note. Skuld seems a lot more surprised by the second revelation
So those are my problems with the scene, now let's get to my theory to solve them.
Imagine you are Brain, a clever, curious freethinker, and you have just read the note and found out that a fellow union leader has replaced the missing Strelitzia. You know who the replacement is but you don't know if she knows that she's a replacement, whether she had anything to do with Strelitzia's disappearance, or the reason behind the replacement.
If you want to know the whole truth, would you just confront the replacement and tell her that you know it's her. I don't think you would, because if she has hidden intentions she probably won't share them with you just because you know she's an impostor.
What you could do to get the replacement to reveal their true nature is let them know you know there's a replacement but that you believe it to be someone else, and that they are now in the clear, allowing you to observe their reactions without arousing their suspicions. And this is what I think Brain did, he set a trap for Skuld and used Ven as the bait.
Ven makes a good fall guy, his timid and self-doubting nature make it easy to paint him as an impostor. He also is friends with the real replacement, and so her reaction to Ven being accused would be very revealing: will she defend her friend or turn on him, if the latter then she would very likely know she is the replacement.
Now, questioning Skuld and making her believe that Brain & Ephemer think her innocent, then revealing that Ven is the replacement, would be much easier without Ven himself present. Also if they spoke to Ven alone then they could let him in on the act, rather than having to convince him that he actually is the replacement (a painful experience for sure, which could leave your heart vulnerable...) This would explain why Ephemer is so pained during the conversation, knowing what they are doing to Ven in pursuit of the truth.
In my theory, Skuld knows she is the replacement, hence her lack of surprise at the Strelitzia reveal and her shock at the Ven reveal. She is likely the killer as well.
That's the theory and the supporting evidence. I have noticed the big weakness of it when watching the scene. Skuld says she received her rulebook from Ava on the same hill as Brain & Ephemer while Ven got his near the tower. However, as @kirabook pointed out, we know Ava didn't give everyone their rulebook on that hill because we saw her give Strelitzia her's in town.
Then the issues are why did Skuld say she got hers on the hill and why did Brain ask the question and what answers did he expect. I can't answer those now but I think they can be explained. In the event, Skuld answering the same as Brain & Ephemer with only Ven different would help lull Skuld into a false sense of security.
On balance, I think the evidence for my theory is strong, and finally I could add that this scene may actually give us a clue as to replacement's motives. Assume Skuld is the killer and replacement, watch the video again carefully, keeping the following assumption (as we still don't know who was to receive the book) in mind:
Thank you for reading.
So, in the most recent update, we finally found out who the replacement is and it's Ven! Brain told us so it must be true as he has the list and has no clear reason to lie. I thought it was Ven for a while so wasn't surprised at the revelation but looking over the scene again I have changed my mind and think the replacement is actually Skuld.
Apart from Ven being a little too obvious (especially with ReMind), there are a few strange things in the scene, which I will try to list.
1) Skuld gets defensive very quickly when Brain stars his questioning and when Brain says that Strelitzia was originally meant to be a union leader, Skuld immediately suggests that Lady Ava made the change herself, appointing a replacement for Strelitzia after his disappearance. If this were true, then the replacement leader would be innocent and the act of replacement itself benign, an unfortunate consequence of Strelitzia's disappearance rather than linked to it. Once Brain shuts that down logically, Skuld quickly suggests the absent Lauriam could be the replacement. It's odd that she is so keen to apportion blame to people who can't argue back.
2) Brain and Ephemer are taken aback by both Ven and Skuld being present and it annoys Brain, who says that he'll 'have to make this work'. But if Brain wanted to ask Ven those questions to verify whether he knew he was the replacement, I can't see why Skuld being there too would be a problem. Also, Ephemer says Chirithy brought 'both of them', not 'them as well', which suggests that he and Brain did want to talk to each of them but separately (I am assuming that the Japanese has the same nuance as the translation).
3) Ephemer seems very uncomfortable during the conversation, saying 'this isn't right'. This one may just upset at anyone being a replacement but I am not convinced. EDIT: The translation has been updated and so this one doesn't work now.
4) Visual clues - watch the faces of Skuld and Ven when Brain mentions Strelitzia. Compare Skuld's face when Brain says Ven's name wasn't on the note. Skuld seems a lot more surprised by the second revelation
So those are my problems with the scene, now let's get to my theory to solve them.
Imagine you are Brain, a clever, curious freethinker, and you have just read the note and found out that a fellow union leader has replaced the missing Strelitzia. You know who the replacement is but you don't know if she knows that she's a replacement, whether she had anything to do with Strelitzia's disappearance, or the reason behind the replacement.
If you want to know the whole truth, would you just confront the replacement and tell her that you know it's her. I don't think you would, because if she has hidden intentions she probably won't share them with you just because you know she's an impostor.
What you could do to get the replacement to reveal their true nature is let them know you know there's a replacement but that you believe it to be someone else, and that they are now in the clear, allowing you to observe their reactions without arousing their suspicions. And this is what I think Brain did, he set a trap for Skuld and used Ven as the bait.
Ven makes a good fall guy, his timid and self-doubting nature make it easy to paint him as an impostor. He also is friends with the real replacement, and so her reaction to Ven being accused would be very revealing: will she defend her friend or turn on him, if the latter then she would very likely know she is the replacement.
Now, questioning Skuld and making her believe that Brain & Ephemer think her innocent, then revealing that Ven is the replacement, would be much easier without Ven himself present. Also if they spoke to Ven alone then they could let him in on the act, rather than having to convince him that he actually is the replacement (a painful experience for sure, which could leave your heart vulnerable...) This would explain why Ephemer is so pained during the conversation, knowing what they are doing to Ven in pursuit of the truth.
In my theory, Skuld knows she is the replacement, hence her lack of surprise at the Strelitzia reveal and her shock at the Ven reveal. She is likely the killer as well.
That's the theory and the supporting evidence. I have noticed the big weakness of it when watching the scene. Skuld says she received her rulebook from Ava on the same hill as Brain & Ephemer while Ven got his near the tower. However, as @kirabook pointed out, we know Ava didn't give everyone their rulebook on that hill because we saw her give Strelitzia her's in town.
Then the issues are why did Skuld say she got hers on the hill and why did Brain ask the question and what answers did he expect. I can't answer those now but I think they can be explained. In the event, Skuld answering the same as Brain & Ephemer with only Ven different would help lull Skuld into a false sense of security.
On balance, I think the evidence for my theory is strong, and finally I could add that this scene may actually give us a clue as to replacement's motives. Assume Skuld is the killer and replacement, watch the video again carefully, keeping the following assumption (as we still don't know who was to receive the book) in mind:
Thank you for reading.
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