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What does this even mean??? All of the past is connected to the future, I know that, because the past has to happen for there to be a present and a future! And what's your argument for it taking place in the past?
Alright, well, popular opinion seems to be that the video is set in the past. However, here is one argument that I would like to raise before I give in completely to the idea of it being in the past...
My argument: Riku's Way to Dawn keyblade is futured in the first secret video. That keyblade, in my opinion, didn't just come to him, like, say Sora's Kingdom Key. I think it sort've...evolved (for lack of a better word) with Riku as he grew. I say this because in CoM, before the events of KHII, Riku used a slightly different looking keyblade, one that was completely demonic looking/evil looking/dark looking etc. Then, at the end of CoM, as he came to the realization that he could walk the paths of darkness and light (if my memory is correct), his keyblade (I believe) changed into the Way to Dawn we saw in KHII.
Now, this is complete theory, but I find it still plausible, considering how little we know about keyblades, why shouldn't it be contemplated? I mean, how much do we really know about keyblades?